Global Viral Forecasting Initiative

Research ServicesCalifornia, United States11-50 Employees

Current global disease control focuses almost exclusively on responding to epidemics after they have already spread globally. Nevertheless, dramatic failures in such pandemic control, such as the ongoing lack of success in HIV vaccine development twenty-five years into the pandemic, have shown that this wait-and-respond approach is not sufficient, and that the development of systems to prevent novel pandemics before they are established should be considered a human health imperative. Had we had such systems in place thirty years ago we may have averted the HIV pandemic. We have spent the last ten years developing a global system to prevent pandemics. We have shown that most major diseases of humanity originated in animals and that exposure to wild and domestic animals leads to continuous spillovers of novel agents into humans. Through ongoing monitoring of humans who are highly exposed to animals (e.g. through hunting, butchering, and other activities) we have created a pilot for the first global early warning system to prevent novel pandemics. By coupling this innovative surveillance in field sites throughout the world with a consortium of top laboratories we are able to characterize the diversity of viruses and other agents as they move from animals into human populations, providing basic insights into how new diseases enter humans and improving our ability to decrease the frequency of such events.

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